If There Is Cyber Warfare, Why Not Cyber Diplomacy?

Springtime, 33 years ago: the US Embassy Moscow was a beehive of activity as we prepared for the visit of President Ronald Regan (see related photo essay). He met Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. They exchanged ratified copies of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty – which eliminated an entire category of nuclear missiles. A month later, in July of 1988, the unthinkable happened. Military inspectors from both sides, many of whom were intelligence officers, began arriving in the opposing country to verify missile locations, observe elimination and take up residence at the front gate of their enemy’s most secret rocket factory, deep in the heartland.  It was a triumph of imagination and leadership.

American and Russian flags at the gate of the Votkinsk Missile Factory

 Can the two current leaders manage their domestic constituents and constraints, summon the courage and vision and formulate a treaty in which each side gets access to the global internet exchange points of the other country in order to monitor cyber-attacks?

It would be like the NSA opening a virtual branch-office next to Red Square; or Moscow’s 400-pound cyber-intel officer sitting on his bed hacking away at the personal life of every American.

As this idea germinated into an article, I applied to my friend and mentor Glenn Altschuler for his usual rigorous edit and advice on where to try to hawk my thought-piece. To my joyful surprise, Glenn agreed to co-author the article – which I knew meant he would add insightful insight and I’d get a free lesson in how to write a professional op-ed. The article is now published on the well-respected American publication, The History News Network.

Space race, arms race, vaccine race –there is no doubt both countries can overcome the technical challenges and create cyber treaty. And most people should have already given up on the illusion of privacy beyond their four walls.  Who cares whether it’s the NSA or the GRU that knows which foreign websites you look at?

But what about the political will? If the West wants to see a less aggressive Russia it has to take the country’s national interests into account: a superficial respect for Russian values and leaders; appreciating the sensitivity to border encroachment (formerly known in the West as “spheres of influence”); and the ever-hypocritical commentary on internal affairs.  The Biden-Putin dynamic is not off to a good start, but then again neither was Regan and Gorbachev’s. And least Reagan didn’t insult his counterpart and all his ancestors by likening him to Hitler, as Hilary did.

If Biden can leave Putin with the idea that he at least understands (without necessarily agreeing with) Russian interests when they meet next month, that would be a start. Meanwhile, Putin and his circle have to decide how far they are willing to push the envelope without truly damaging what they perceive to be national interests. Sanctions are one thing, but being cut off from SWIFT, cancelling Ivan Ivanovich’s visa-free vacation in Turkey or Egypt or pushing Ukraine into NATO’s arms are a different matter.

In the article I state that a digital iron curtain is descending. Some Western internet service providers and web hosting companies are, understandably, beginning to block all Russian IP addresses to protect their customers. I’m unable to track the adventures of my favorite clown-doctor at patchadams.org without a VPN. Ironically, last fall I accessed westchestergov.com to order my absentee ballot. But now that’s blocked, too. Is this just a pleasant side effect or part of a greater strategy of Kremlin isolationists to get the enemy to do their job for them? It’s for them to know and us to (probably never) find out.

Should the diplomats find the courage to create a monitorable digital truce, what will we do with all the newly unemployed cyber warriors? Some will participate in the treaty monitoring effort. Others will get jobs with Cyberdyne, refocus their energy and genius and switch to building SkyNet and the first Terminators. Meanwhile, our leaders can focus their newfound cooperation on solving real problems – climate change (Zombie fires burn in Siberia and North America), terrorism…and the threat from unchecked artificial Intelligence.